By the way, my pick to win it is Charl Schwartzel from South Africa. He hits his irons well, which means he can bring the ball in to the tricky greens from all locations, and his putting has been tested in the pressure of a major (2011 Masters).
His Tigerness is not going to win. The rain and the disruption is going to work against his approach to the game. He's best at courses where's he's had plenty of time to prepare: he wants to be able to visualize the shot and execute it. He's not much of an improviser or shotmaker any more. Furthermore, the way the rough has grown (it wasn't much of a year for snow peas in Philadelphia, but you can hear the grass growing), there are going to be lots of awful lies and bad luck for players, and Tiger doesn't deal with that kind of adversity very well any more. Meanwhile, the soft conditions will let a lot more players into the mix.